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Movilidad poblacional y VIH/sida en Centroamérica y México

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Date
2014
Author
Leyva-Flores, René
Aracena-Genao, Belkis
Serván-Mori, Edson
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Abstract
OBJETIVO: Estimar la magnitud de la asociación entre la movilidad poblacional, medida con la tasa neta de migración (TNM) y la prevalencia de VIH en Centroamérica y México. MÉTODOS: Con modelos de series temporales se analizó dicha asociación en personas de 15 a 49 años de edad, ajustada por factores socioeconómicos (educación, educación, desempleo, esperanza de vida e ingreso) y utilizando información pública de ONUSIDA, el PNUD, la CEPAL y el Banco Mundial para el período 1990-2009. RESULTADOS: La TNM fue negativa en todos los países, excepto en Costa Rica y Panamá. Los resultados no ajustados del modelo muestran una asociación positiva y que la TNM puede explicar el 6% de la prevalencia de VIH registrada. Cuando se incluyen cofactores socioeconómicos por país (educación, salud e ingreso), la magnitud asciende a 9% (P0,05). La TNM, incluso ajustada por factores socioeconómicos, explica modestamente la prevalencia de VIH registrada. Los factores socioeconómicos indican mejoras en todos los indicadores en Centroamérica y México, aunque persisten importantes brechas entre países. CONCLUSIONES: La modesta asociación observada entre movilidad poblacional y prevalencia de VIH está condicionada por la situación socioeconómica de los países estudiados. La información disponible limitó el alcance del análisis para establecer con mayor certeza la existencia de esta asociación. En consecuencia, con la información disponible no es posible atribuir a la migración un papel determinante en la diseminación del VIH.(AU)
 
OBJECTIVE: Estimate the magnitude of the association between population mobility, measured by net migration rate (NMR), and HIV prevalence in Central America and Mexico. METHODS: Using time series models, based on public information from UNAIDS, UNDP, ECLAC, and the World Bank for the period 1990-2009, this association was studied in individuals aged 15-49 years, and adjusted for socioeconomic factors (education, unemployment, life expectancy, and income). RESULTS: NMR was negative in all countries except Costa Rica and Panama. Unadjusted results of the model show a positive association and that NMR can explain 6% of recorded HIV prevalence. When socioeconomic cofactors are included by country (education, health, and income), the magnitude increases to 9% (P0.05). NMR, even when adjusted for socioeconomic factors, explains some of recorded HIV prevalence. All socioeconomic indicators show improvements in Central America and Mexico, although large gaps persist among countries. CONCLUSIONS: The modest association observed between population mobility and HIV prevalence is conditioned by the socioeconomic status of the countries studied. Information availability limited the study’s ability to establish the existence of this association with greater certainty. Accordingly, based on available information, it is not possible to affirm that migration plays a key role in the spread of HIV.(AU)
 
Series
Rev Panam Salud Publica;36(3),sept. 2014
Subject
Migración humana; VIH; Prevalencia; América Central; Mexico; Human Migration; HIV; Prevalence; Central America; Mexico
URI
http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1020-49892014000800001
https://iris.paho.org/handle/10665.2/9903
Citation
Leyva-Flores, René,Aracena-Genao, Belkis,Serván-Mori, Edson (2014) Movilidad poblacional y VIH/sida en Centroamérica y México. Rev Panam Salud Publica;36(3) 143-149,sep. 2014. Retrieved from http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1020-49892014000800001
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  • Pan American Journal of Public Health

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