Major storm on the horizon: Health and macroeconomic burdens of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions in South America

Abstract

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases) and mental health conditions (e.g., Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias, depression, anxiety, autism spectrum disorders) are the world’s leading cause of preventable illness, disability, and death. This report examines the dangers posed by current and rising rates of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions (NMHs) in South America, beyond their health risks, by demonstrating their considerable negative impact on economic growth.

An analytical model was developed that projects the macroeconomic effects of NMHs over the period 2020–2050 in ten South American countries: Argentina, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The results showed that the macroeconomic impact of NMHs in South America indicates significant economic shortfalls resulting from NMHs. Overall, the total GDP loss due to NMHs in South America amounts to USD 7.3 trillion (2022 international USD) over the period 2020–2050. This is equivalent to 4% of the total GDP in the region. In other words, if NMH were eliminated, the annual GDP would be about 4% higher every year for 30 years. A substantial negative economic effect of NMHs was observed in all the South American countries studied, with economic shortfalls ranging from USD 88 billion in Uruguay to USD 3.7 trillion in Brazil. The highest output losses are in Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia, the countries with the region’s largest populations and the greatest expected negative health impacts of NMH, as measured in total DALYs.

The report also addresses the options for action in order to mitigate the impact in health and in the economy. Policymakers must be encouraged to take urgent action, which should include, for example, prevention, universal health care, long-term care reform, the overhauling of healthcare systems, more rigorous health technology assessment and innovation, and responsive healthcare policy. Ministers of health, along with ministers of finance, ministers of planning, and other governmental leaders in South America, are urged to heed this warning and devote the necessary resources – beginning immediately and with consistent, appropriate investment into the future – to address the challenge of NMHs.