COVID-19 Situation Update, n. 148 (20 January 2022)

Abstract

The situation in some countries and territories (hitherto referred to as countries) is already showing that the current Omicron wave has peaked and cases are now declining. Especially British Virgin Islands, French Guiana, Grenada and St. Kitts and Nevis show declining 7 day moving incidence rates in the last week as well as a decline in the 7 day average of test positivity. Both these indicators are converging in these four countries. Cases continue to steadily increase in other countries although the situation varies widely. Incidence in both children (<18 years) and adults in Barbados shows a near equal rate of increase in incidence, however the test positivity has somewhat steadied and hovers around 20-25% - a rate relatively lower compared to other ECC countries. On the other hand, test positivity rate in Antigua & Barbuda, and St. Lucia hover upwards of 30-40% - reflecting a near saturation of lab capacity and consequently cases may not show an increase owing to ceiling effect. Data from Dominica is patchy but test positivity rates in that country are also rising, albeit near 100% of suspected cases are tested with RDTs and as such comparison with other countries can't be done. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has adopted RDT to be confirmatory diagnosis for COVID-19, but the statistics reflect only PCR positive cases leading to false low incidence rate. When RDTs are summed up with PCR cases, the incidence rate is near 16 times high.